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Russian Federation emerged from the global crisis and returned to moderate growth with lower than expected unemployment and poverty, in part due to a large fiscal stimulus. Russia’s short-term economic and fiscal situation remains favorable because of high oil prices with an almost balanced budget this year. But the balance of macroeconomic risks has shifted toward an uncertain growth path as inflation pressures subside and external risks rise sharply. With heightened external risks because of the slowdown in the United States and the European Union, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and attendant decline in oil prices, we now expect Russia’s real GDP to grow 4 percent in 2011 (down from 4.4 percent expected in June). Although the aggregate, short-term unemployment picture is favorable, unemployment remains very high in many regions, especially in the North Caucasus district, reflecting investment climate, and structural factors. The new Country Partnership Strategy for FY12-16 is under preparation now. It will be aligned with the Government strategy 2020 and will cover four main themes: (i) Increasing Growth with Diversification, (ii) Expanding Human Potential, (iii) Deepening Russia’s Global Role, and (iv) Improving Governance.

Active financed activities as of September 21, 2011.
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